Why we are not properly prepared for a homeland nuclear incident;
What can realistically be done to prepare for one(Last updated February 04, 2010 )
Introduction
I have written e-mails to several news media outlets requesting that they consider doing reports on several issues related to getting prepared to deal with nuclear fallout. Nuclear fallout is a survivable event if you are properly prepared for it. A city or county that is unprepared could experience significant deaths and serious illnesses that could have been avoided if realistic preparations had been made. First, some background info on me. About 20 years ago, I completed a FEMA course titled "Introduction to Radiological Monitoring". It taught me how to use survey meters and dosimeters to monitor gamma radiation levels after a nuclear attack or accident.
Several months ago, I contacted government officials at the local, county state and federal levels. As a result of those contacts, I am now less comfortable than I was before that we are properly prepared for a potential nuclear incident. I will spell out my reasons why below, then provide links to some sites that give practical alternatives for realistic planning for a nuclear radiation emergency.
North Korea
100 suitcase sized nuclear bombs missing from Russia’s arsenal
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/suitcase/comments.html Potential targets of nuclear attack in general: http://www.radmeters4u.com/list.htm http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/nuclear.cfm Attacks against nuclear power plants
http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/nuclear-plants.cfm http://www.tmia.com/sabter.html Where they’re located: http://www.nci.org/nci-wpu-maps.htm Terrorist detonation of conventional "Dirty" bombs containing radioactive materials 1
http://www.howstuffworks.com/dirty-bomb1.htm http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,526856,00.html
Why we should get start preparing now instead of waitingEven if terrorists do not currently possess nuclear weapons that could be detonated on the continental United States, that doesn't mean the threat won't be there in the next few years. We have essentially three options to prepare.
- Revive our public fallout shelter programs.
- Educate the public on how to survive radiation hazards in their own homes (if that is even possible). Based on the training I received twenty years ago, I suspect that in most cases it isn't if high levels of gamma radiation are present.
- Educate the public on how/where to find suitable shelter, and how to properly stock it with supplies and radiation monitoring equipment.
Which parts of the shelter give the best protection? How large is the radiation dose being received by each person? When is it safe to leave the shelter for a few minutes? When can one leave for an hour's walk to get desperately needed water? As the fallout continues to decay, how long can one safely work each day outside the shelter? When can the shelter be left for good? Only an accurate, dependable fallout meter will enable survivors to answer these life-or-death questions.
Nuclear War Survival Skills, Chapter 10.Regardless of which option we choose, it's going to take time to put together public education programs or get fallout shelters identified and prepared. If we get started now, we may be in pretty good shape if something actually happens. I can think of two reasons why we could be facing a nuclear threat within the next few years even if we aren't now.
First, some lone soldier or small group of soldiers who have access to nuclear weapons in another country could reach the point of seething anger over our military action against what they perceive to be attacks on Islam. They could go AWOL, taking this equipment with them. Or they could help terrorist groups steal it. We have had similar problems with our own military equipment right here in this country. Soldiers belonging to skin-head and other hate groups have stolen military hardware for the purpose of having their particular paramilitary groups use it.Second, sooner or later, countries like North Korea, Iran and Iraq will possess the ability to launch nuclear missiles against the US. I wonder if they would be unafraid of a nuclear response from us because of the fact that the fallout our bombs would produce might kill thousands of innocent people in neighboring countries? A high altitude air burst would produce far less fallout than a ground burst, but would it be enough of a reduction to eliminate this problem? Let's say for instance that Iraq launched a couple nuclear missiles against the US. Would we be willing to risk killing tens of thousands of people in Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt by launching a nuclear attack against Iraq that could result in deadly fallout landing on these other innocent countries? If Iraq or another nation believes that we would not launch a counter attack using nukes for this reason, they may feel more emboldened to launch such an attack against us. A terrorist might feel more comfortable doing it for the same reason. Maybe we would be willing to launch a retaliatory strike in these cases, but even if we were willing to, one could imagine how a potential adversary might think we wouldn't because of the high risk of collateral damage to other countries.
Conversation with local Franklin County Emergency Management officeI contacted our local Emergency Management office and asked them several questions about our level of preparedness. Here are the highlights of what was shared with me:
- He said most if not all fire stations in Franklin county have radiation monitoring equipment and personnel trained to use them.
- He didn’t think a large airliner like the ones that hit the twin towers could penetrate the containment buildings for the nuclear reactors (Note: I have heard media reports that conflict with this assessment).
- He would not be seeking the assistance of private citizens like me who have training in this area if an incident occurred. He felt that we’re pretty well covered by government employees and others who they already have a commitment from to help as far as monitoring is concerned.
- Franklin county is doing nothing in the way of creating public fallout shelters.
- He agreed with me that most residences will offer good protection against alpha and beta radiation, but not against gamma (gamma is by far the worst).
- He said we’ve learned a lot more about radiation since I took that course 20 years ago. Gamma radiation isn’t as much of a problem as once thought with fallout. (Note: I would like the media to explore this issue in depth to confirm the accuracy of this assertion. The book that FEMA recommended to me, Nuclear War Survival Skills, makes no such claim that I am aware of).
- He did not know of a place that calibrates radiation monitoring equipment for private citizens. He said that the state of Ohio calibrates the ones the county uses once every three years. Update: I recently learned of a business that will calibrate your existing equipment. For more information, see the Tips on owning your own radiation monitoring equipment section below.
Why after this conversation I’m even more concerned than beforeFirst, let me be clear that he was very generous with his time. I didn’t get the impression that he was trying to be evasive in any way. I am grateful to him for the amount of time he spent with me on the phone answering my questions. However, having said that, the conversation did little to set me at ease for the following reasons.
A survivor in a shelter that does not have a dependable meter to measure fallout radiation or that has one but lacks someone who knows how to use it will face a prolonged nightmare of uncertainties. Human beings cannot feel, smell, taste, hear, or see fallout radiation. A heavy attack would put most radio stations off the air, due to the effects of electromagnetic pulse, blast, fire, or fallout from explosions. Nuclear War Survival Skills, Chapter 10. He agreed with me that most private residences will NOT offer sufficient protection against gamma radiation if fallout would happen to fall on Franklin county in high levels. That means if there were high radiation levels, there could be many serious illnesses and deaths. However, he also said there are no plans to open public fallout shelters. These public shelters WOULD offer adequate protection. They could also be stocked with the proper supplies, and have medical personnel on-hand to treat people with radiation sickness or other illnesses.
Let’s assume the best case scenario using our current plans for dealing with this type of an incident in Franklin county. Let's say that every fire station is actively monitoring and reporting fallout radiation levels all around Franklin county if fallout did settle over the area. Since there are no public fallout shelters, citizens would need to rely primarily on their own homes for shelter. Let's further assume that every Franklin county resident who took up shelter in their own homes had access to a radio and that none of the radio stations were knocked off the air by electromagnet pulse bursts from the detonation. That still leaves five gaping holes in our preparedness that might not be present if those same people were in suitable public fallout shelters.
Most homes would not provide sufficient protection against higher levels of gamma radiation. That means a lot of people would die or get seriously ill. An interesting point for the media to research and report on is exactly how low the outside radiation levels would have to be before a typical residence would be considered safe. I have an out of print civil defense book that gives some guidelines on how to determine if your home will provide adequate protection or not. I have not been able to find this valuable information on any government web site anywhere. The only place I've found it is in this out-of-print In Time of Emergency booklet.
99.9% of citizens won't know where the safest place inside their shelter is because it may change several times a day. Some parts of the home may have much higher levels of radiation exposure than others. If monitoring equipment isn't available that the occupants know how to use, there is no way to know for sure if the location chosen is really the safest place to be. One of the things I was trained to do 20-years ago was to take radiation measurements throughout the entire shelter area, several times a day, to find where the safest places are. It can change throughout the day due to changing wind patterns, rain and other factors. Many people will think they are in the safest place in their homes when in fact there may be far safer locations. The radiological monitors at the fire stations will be of little to no use to them because they're not going to come to everyone's homes to take measurements and tell them where they should be. However, if a formal hardened shelter that offered sufficient protection against high levels of gamma radiation had been prepared ahead of time inside a home, or outside underground, then this particular issue probably would not be a concern. The reason is because that would obviously be the safest place to be in the home no matter what.
There are apparently no plans in place at the local level to educate people as to exactly how they can harden their homes against gamma radiation, and how much hardening is enough.
If someone became ill from radiation or for any other reason and required medical assistance, they would be unable to leave their homes if radiation levels were still high. Ambulances would also be unable to come to them for the same reason. A public fallout shelter could be staffed with medical personnel that could respond to some emergencies. They could also provide at least some basic treatment for people experiencing radiation sickness. Some citizens who are unaware of the danger of high radiation levels may risk leaving their homes to get medical care, only to expose themselves to lethal doses of gamma radiation in the process.
There simply may not be enough time to make any preparations in a real emergency. If adequate shelter isn't already set up and stocked with provisions, there may be little or no hope of surviving what otherwise would have been a very survivable situation if proper shelter and provisions had been available.
Tips on owning your own radiation monitoring equipment
Most people will have no idea if what they're buying works properly, and if it's calibrated properly unless it is purchased from a reputable company. If we had to purchase monitoring equipment today, the company we'd buy them from is www.radmeters4u.com.
The only do-it-yourself fallout meter that is accurate and dependable was invented in 1977. It is called the KFM (Kearny Fallout Meter); one is pictured in Fig. 10.1. This simple instrument has undergone rigorous scientific testing in several laboratories, including Oak Ridge National Laboratory; its accuracy and dependability were confirmed. Many hundreds of KFMs have been made by untrained people, ranging from members of junior high school science classes to grandmothers making them for their children and grandchildren.
Nuclear War Survival Skills, Chapter 10.
- Purchase a survey meter that is capable of reading at least 500 roentgens. A survey meter is like a speedometer on a car. It measures the roentgens per hour (R/hr), or rate per hour of gamma radiation levels. If for instance the meter is exposed to 50 R/hr, it would almost immediately indicate 50 R/hr just the same way a speedometer would read 50 mph if that's how fast you were traveling. Some dishonest companies sell survey meters that have a maximum measurement of less than 1 roentgen, but don’t bother to tell their customers that what they’re buying will be useless in a real emergency. You should also purchase a dosimeter. That's a meter that tells you how much accumulated radiation you've been exposed to. This is similar to an odometer on a car. Using the same example above of a 50 R/hr. exposure rate, the dosimeter would read 25 R after 1/2 hour, and 50R after one hour. Both are useful tools that serve different purposes. Comparing this to an odometer, if you were traveling at 50 mph, the odometer would read +50 miles after one hour.
- Most people don’t know how to use the equipment. The same company we recommended above to purchase meters also sells a book that explains how to use them. The book is titled Radiation Safety In Shelters. Purchase it at www.radmeters4u.com/#5 (scroll down a little more than half way to get to it). You can read the whole thing on-line for free at http://www.ki4u.com/free_book/s73p904.htm.
- You can make your own fallout meter. It's accurate, inexpensive and requires no batteries. See the information in the brown text box above for more information on the Kearney Fallout Meter (KFM). You can also purchase a kit to make it at www.radmeters4u.com/#5 (scroll down the almost the bottom of the page). For instructions on how to make one yourself using common household items, see www.ki4u.com/free_book/s60p792.htm.
There are basically three types of civil defense radiation meters; survey meters, Geiger counters and dosimeters. The KFM is a type of survey meter. To learn more about all three types, see http://www.radmeters4u.com/#1a. One drawback to the KFM is that it can only detect gamma radiation levels up to 43 roentgens per hour. The recommended minimum is 500. Still, at 43 R/hr it's far more useful than not having any meter at all. It may also be a good backup in case your battery powered survey meter has dead batteries, or is knocked out of service by an electromagnetic burst from the nuclear detonation. The KFM kit mentioned above also comes with it's own radiation source (from a common household smoke detector) to test the device with to make sure it's working properly. Except for needing to get another 8-ounce can, the kit comes with enough materials to assemble two KFM meters. If you're going to take the scavenger hunt approach to gathering the materials needed to assemble a KFM, it's best to assemble it before it's needed, because some of the materials may not be readily available during a real radiation emergency.
- You can purchase a survey meter in the form of a key chain that you can carry with you at all times. It's called a Nukalert, and it's maximum gamma radiation detection level is 50 R per hour. Although it too falls far below the recommended 500 R capability, it's a lot better than having no meter at all.
- If you already own your own survey meter or dosimeter, it's supposed to be calibrated every 1-3 years. Do not trust them to be accurate if they have not been calibrated recently. The same company mentioned above also calibrates them. For more information, see www.radmeters4u.com/calibrate.htm.
What the public needs to know that local and federal governments aren't telling them
- If it is the intent of local, state and federal agencies to have citizens fend for themselves inside their homes during a nuclear incident, then they need to be telling them how to harden their homes against gamma radiation from fallout.
- Citizens should also be told how to tell if their homes simply cannot be sufficiently hardened against gamma radiation, and what their options are in that case.
- How to properly prepare an in-home shelter area, and how long to expect to be there.
- What the local government will do if an incident occurs, and how citizens can keep up-to-date.
- How will the public be notified of such incidents? Will the emergency broadcasting system be activated? Will weather alert radios be activated (the newer ones are supposed to be used for these kinds of emergencies).
- Do Potassium Iodide treatments for radiation sickness work? If so, how should they be used? Is it safe to give it to toddlers and infants? What other medical supplies should be on-hand? Will they be available?
- What links on the internet are useful?
- How can you get quality radiation monitoring equipment for home use?
- How can you get training on how to properly use them?
- How and where can you get them calibrated?
- How to avoid being ripped off when purchasing radiological equipment. What some common problems are.
- If there are any buildings that are suitable for public fallout shelters, where are they, and how accessible are they, especially after normal business hours?
Recommended Reading - Realistic options for preparingFEMA recommended the book "Nuclear War Survival Skills" to me. One link below shows where to buy it. The other has the entire book online.
Click on the icon above to read the entire book on-lineRead this book in its entirety online: http://www.ki4u.com/free_book/s73p904.htm
See: Doctors for Disaster Preparedness - A Question after the Attack: Where Are the Shelters?
However, even in almost all areas not endangered by blast and fire during a massive nuclear attack, the fallout protection provided by most existing buildings would not be adequate if the winds blew from the wrong direction during the time of fallout deposition. To remain in or near cities or other probable target areas, one would need better protection against blast, fire, and fallout than is provided by most shelters in buildings.
Nuclear War Survival Skills, Chapter 5.I think we need to take a hard look at our policy of having citizens fend for themselves during a nuclear incident. I believe this will prove to be a horrendous mistake should we ever experience a real nuclear attack that involves high levels of gamma radiation. We may have had it right back in the 1950's when we had public fallout shelters. Perhaps it's time we revive those programs so that the public can have real protection. If the government can't afford to do it, then perhaps the business community should step up to the plate and offer to help out.
In the absence of public fallout shelters, it is important to know whether or not your home is likely to provide you with adequate protection from high levels of gamma radiation. Consider contacting local, county, state and federal emergency management officials and insisting that they make this information readily available to the public, or at least tell you where you can find it. If your home can't be sufficiently hardened against gamma radiation, perhaps it would be a good idea to start thinking now about what your options would be for finding adequate shelter that is close to where you live. Books like Nuclear War Survival Skills can teach you how to create a temporary shelter or how to purchase or build a more permanent one.
A fallout shelter, public or private, probably will not give you much protection at all from the immediate blast and heat effects if you are near 'ground zero' of an actual nuclear detonation. However, if the only threat you face from the detonation is from radioactive nuclear fallout, that is a very survivable threat if you are well prepared, and well informed. Based on what I've seen so far, our government is not going to get us prepared as well as we need to be. It may be up to each family and the business community to take more realistic steps to prepare so that if a real incident ever does occur, it can be dealt with more effectively, with greater confidence and with far less panic.
Contact us with your comments or questions
1. The training I took 20 years ago didn't address the issue of "dirty bombs". It was focused primarily on the fallout from actual nuclear explosions. Dirty bombs use conventional explosives to disperse radioactive materials. Based on what I've been able to learn about dirty bombs from media and internet sources, it appears that dirty bombs present far less of an immediate radiation hazard from fallout than real nuclear bombs do. Because the gamma radiation levels are likely to be far lower with a dirty bomb, the typical residence may offer adequate protection in the short term against gamma radiation if any is present. Some radioactive materials that could be used in a dirty bomb don't produce any gamma radiation at all. They are primarily beta radiation which most homes could do a good job of stopping. However, the most common radiation meters only detect gamma radiation. Many will not detect alpha or beta radiation at all. The real danger with dirty bombs appears to be long-term exposure to their lower levels of radiation (lower compared to a nuclear bomb). Therefore, unless a dirty bomb was a really huge one that contained very large quantities of radioactive materials, many of the concerns I've expressed in this article may not be relevant to dirty bombs. The best way to know for sure is to listen to what local officials are saying about the hazards at the time, then do what they tell you to do, even if that means evacuating your home.
Related Topic: God and Terrorism
Shortly after the events of September 11, 2001, many people wondered how an event like that could have occurred if God is a loving God. In response to questions like that, Dr. D. James Kennedy wrote a book that answers some of the tough theological questions people have about tragedies like this. We also posted an essay on our web site that is consistent with what Dr. Kennedy says in his book (and other pastors have been saying for years). Churches all across America have been expecting an event like this to occur for the past few decades. We will also not be surprised if things get a lot worse because this nation as a whole still seems to be ignoring the "God factor" in its long-term security. For more information see the link below:
